MACROECONOMIC INFORMATION AND ASSESSMENTS

The Chief Economists’ Group (CEG) is engaged in macro-economic and monetary affairs, at European and international levels, in relation to the banking sector in Europe. The CEG, chaired by Mr Helge Pedersen (Nordea Bank’s Group Chief Economist), comprises high-level experts in macro-economic and monetary analysis, such as banks’ and national banking associations’ chief economists.
The CEG also performs a role supporting the work of the different EBF Committees providing analysis of economic and monetary policy issues.

Engagement with authorities

The CEG facilitates continuous dialogue with authorities such as the European Central Bank, the European Commission, and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), discussing topical issues such as economic forecasts, the restructuring of the banking industry, regulatory issues carrying heavy economic repercussions, the international performance of the euro or the management of the economic and monetary policy of the euro area with particular reference to its effects on the banking sector.

About the EBF Economic Outlook

The bi-annual report is prepared with contributions from the European Banking Federation’s Chief Economists’ Group. These reports reflect a consensus on the outlook for the Euro area economy, which is based on arithmetic averages.

EBF Economic Outlook n°45 (2019-2020)

EBF Autumn 2018 n°44 (2018-2019)

EBF Economic Outlook n°43 (2017-2018)

EBF Economic Outlook n°42 (2017-2018)

EBF Economic Outlook n°41 (2017-2018)

EBF Economic Outlook n°40 (2016-2017)

EBF Economic Outlook n°39 (2015-2016)

EBF Economic Outlook n°38 (2014-2015)

EBF Economic Outlook n°37 (2014-2015)

EBF Economic Outlook n°36 (2013)

EBF Economic Outlook n°35 (2013)

EBF Economic Outlook n°34 (2012-2013)

EBF Economic Outlook n°33 (2012-2013)

EBF Economic Outlook n°32 (2011-2012)

EBF Economic Outlook n°31 (2011-2012)

EBF Economic Outlook n°30 (2010-2011)

EBF Economic Outlook n°29 (2010-2011)

EBF Economic Outlook n°28 (2009-2010)

EBF Economic Outlook n°27 (2009)

EBF Economic Outlook n°26 (2008-2009)

EBF Economic Outlook n°25 (2008-2009)

EBF Economic Outlook n°24 (2007)

EU-wide stress tests

As part of the post-crisis reform agenda, stress tests have become a key tool to analyse the resilience of European banks. Every two years the European Banking Authority (EBA) in coordination with the ECB conducts the EU-wide stress tests. The purpose of stress testing is to understand how banks would cope with unexpected deteriorating economic conditions. The value of stress testing has become apparent during the Covid-19 health crisis which is causing severe economic distress.

The EBF is closely engaged in the design of the future EU-wide stress test methodology that the EBA is currently developing. According to the EBA proposal, the exercise could be split up in two parts. The first one would be run by supervisors and the second one would be run by banks. However, the workload could increase and it is yet a high resource-consuming process.

The EBF supports improving the current framework maintaining the current bottom-up approach and progressively remove the constraints applying to banks. This requires an enhanced supervisory dialogue between authorities and the banking sector.